“The truth is that we most likely peaked [in global oil production] in 2005,” argued Matthew Simmons when I recently spoke to him. It is the second time I talk to the founder and now chairman emeritus of Simmons & Company International in Houston, Texas. The first time was about five years ago, well before he published his impressive book Twilight in the Desert (John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey). The five years now seem like an eternity.
I would agree, it does seem likely that 2005 is the year. I have in the past years, since around 2003 or so, interviewed Colin Campbell, Kenneth Deffeyes, Fatih Birol and most of the important petroleum geologists around the world. Many of them (though not all of them) argue that 2005 is probably the peak year. So, if it is 2005 then we can expect that about now, as we enter the year 2010, things will begin to happen. What kind of things?


In WAM, in June 2006, I published a very interesting and important and certainly prescient article, which you see below.
The title: THE COLLAPSE OF THE BANKING AND MEDIA GIANTS
The URL: http://worldaffairsmonthly.com/article.php?id=1&date=June-2006
What I had understood is that the two valuable assets of the elite – their precious banks and their ubiquitous propaganda – would collapse and be pretty much wiped out. This is indeed precisely what happened in 2006-2008. The Western ruling elite – which is headquartered in Washington, New York City, and Jerusalem – has responded by heavy borrowing and “quantitative easing.” What is quantitative easing? It is printing money – otherwise called inflation. Yes, desperate measures almost always produce desperate outcomes. One thing is certain: the ruling elite is going down. I published recently a series of articles speculating about one possible and certainly exciting outcome.
The title: WILL THERE BE A COUP D'ÉTAT IN WASHINGTON?
The URL: http://worldaffairsmonthly.com/showpdfbyid.php?id=1343&pdf=nov09noteworthy2.pdf
The title: WILL THERE BE A COUP D'ÉTAT IN WASHINGTON? (PART TWO)
The URL: http://worldaffairsmonthly.com/showpdfbyid.php?id=1353&pdf=nov09wargaming3.pdf
The title: WILL THERE BE A COUP D'ÉTAT IN WASHINGTON? (PART THREE)
The URL: http://worldaffairsmonthly.com/showpdfbyid.php?id=1379&pdf=jan2010noteworthy1.pdf
The title: WILL THERE BE A COUP D'ÉTAT IN WASHINGTON? (PART FOUR)
The URL: http://worldaffairsmonthly.com/showpdfbyid.php?id=1384&pdf=jan2010noteworthy4.pdf
Several years ago I envisioned what the future will likely be, and I publish below a sketch of this future. The WAM audience will find it familiar.

I had understood about 10 years ago that there would be an extraordinary convergence of three technologies. This convergence would in some respects destroy the world.

We would be destroying the old and building a new world. This would go on for some time, for at least 15 years or so. That the charlatans in power – yes, the elite can be described this way – can not and will not remain in control is obvious. That Israel will be destroyed is obvious. That globalization will to some degree be going into reverse is obvious. That China and India and much of the so-called “developing world” will collapse inevitably into violence and civil conflict is becoming more and more appreciated and understood. My theory of economics (which was conceived in February 2008) suggests to us what is happening and why. There are three fundamental sources of economic development and growth:

In a 2009 book titled Crude World (Alfred A. Knopf, New York) by the journalist Peter Maass there are two useful documents, which I publish below:


I have long believed that the future can be predicted with some degree of accuracy – if you have powerful theory. This theory has to yield insight and understanding if we are to project ourselves into the unknown, which is otherwise called the future.... continue |